Showing posts with label Team Anna. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Team Anna. Show all posts

Friday, August 10, 2012

Lessons from Team Anna Faux Pas at Jantar Mantar

1. No one wants to die for the nation.
If someone says s/he is willing to die for the nation, it is to be assumed that s/he won't. That's barring a few notable aberrations like Bhagat Singh, Chandrashekhar, Rajguru, Sukhdeo, et al. So when someone takes to Fast Unto Death, rest assured - No one's dying. And that's true, not only about Anna Hazare and Arvind Kejriwal but also about Gandhi. The demands would typically be vague enough so that before it comes to dying, one can back out of the fast.

2. You need to know when to use this weapon and when not to.
The greatest champ of this weapon, Gandhi knew this well. He understood that he would be able to bring the British to their knees by going on fast - because though they enslaved the nation, by and large, they were relatively humane. Yet another time, Gandhi had gone on fast was in Noakhali when the hindus had decided to avenge the killings in Bengal an year ago. They were out for the blood of Shaheed Suhrawardy. Again, Gandhi knew that the hindus would relent to the pressure of his fast. And they did. It may be noted that when Muhammed Ali Jinnah was hell-bent upon partitioning India, Gandhi had famously said, "Partition only on my dead body". This had provided a false assurance to many Indians across both sides of the border that eventually came up, that Gandhi is going to fast and Jinnah will then give up his demand. However, Gandhi knew that there is no way Jinnah can be convinced and he might have to die if he were to go on fast unto death. So there was no fast. A partition happened and it did not happen on Gandhi's dead body. Anna's fast an year ago was a success because Congress was caught unaware of the will-power of those behind Anna movement. It did not succeed this time because Congress was in better position to read the bluff behind their fast.

3. Keep it vague.
The demands at such a fast need to be kept vague. So that you can express satisfaction at the end of 10 days of fast and break your fast even if technically speaking no demands have been met. That's how negotiations end. You may have the opponent down on his knees and meet all your demands or the opponent may not meet any of them but allow you to back out gracefully, or anything in between the two possibilities. That happened in Anna's first sally, one year ago. The fast had almost brought Congress on its knees but then Anna's condition had worsened to the extent that they could not carry on any longer without losing Anna's life. So the two sides agreed to something that appeared to be a good win-win solution (but in hindsight it can be said that Congress pulled it off).

4. Back-out should be well-planned
No one knows why Arvind Kejriwal's fast at Jantar Mantar really ended. It was embarrassing to the movement and its followers (which by the way, has shrunk quite sharply and that's quite worrying). It appears that all the above lessons were forgotten. Congress knew the bluff about willingness to die for the nation, Kejriwal probably did not know that it was not a wise idea to repeat the use of this weapon because a. Congress will not agree to your demand and b. The public support has come down to a new ebb (thanks so some deft media-management by their opponents and some self-goals by Team Anna) and the demands made by Team Anna were not vague enough to make a good back-out from the fast. What came out was a hurried and a very embarrassing end to the 6-day fast with nothing to show in terms of achievement. Their opponents gave them a cold shrug!

Clearly, the nation needs a strong fight against corruption and its perpetrators. I am all for Team Anna movement. But the movement needs to be backed by a good strategy in place. Anti-Corruption is too important a war to be lost, the way it seems to have.

Friday, December 2, 2011

FDI In Retail...

Frankly, I am not competent enough to figure out the pros and cons of the decision to open up the retail sector to Foreign Direct Investment. So I have absolutely no bias for or against this decision. I am willing to accept that the decision may help the nation in the long run as much as I am willing to accept that this decision is a sell-out to the interests of multinationals. So I am not even delving into the merits or demerits of the decision, for now. What perturbs me is the sheer haste with which the government wants to move on this.

This same government was shying away from taking decision since last three years on almost anything. So when the Team Anna with full might of the people of India behind it, applied pressure to pass the Jan Lokpal Bill in the monsoon session of the parliament itself, the same government's response was prompt. It is a bill that would have long-term repercussions and hence it needs time to be studied and debated amply before it can be passed. For some strange reason, this same government apparently thinks that the decision on FDI in retail does not require such due diligence. Its almost like Rip Van Winkle woke up from a deep slumber of three years, one fine morning and said "Hey, we need to do FDI in retail..quick!"

Here's what happened while the government was sleeping. We had a big real estate bubble - both commercial as well as residential. While the interest rates were soft, builders aggressively borrowed to buy land and build residential and commercial structures. Property prices kept going up like never before. A lot of this business flourished on the back of ill-gotten wealth of the politicians. Now we are in a situation where commercial realty has already crashed and residential is in a deep mess. Don't ask me the source of my information. I am not in the habit of maintaining links and references to my information source. You just have to search for real-estate inventory in the 4 metros and the numbers are available all across the internet. The builders will hold on to the inventory so long as the real investors behind it (the politicians with black money) are willing to stay put.

These politicians will soon need the money. You need money to fight elections and election season is round the corner. First some major states that are going to polls, and then the grand finale' in 2014. Where will this money come from if it is stuck up in inventory that is refusing to get sold? This is where FDI comes in. Walmart is going to need space, a hell lot of space to open its malls. Initially, the malls are going to get permission only in the big cities. The same cities where land is scarce and where the ill-gotten wealth is stuck up the most.

This explains the haste with which the FDI needs to happen, no matter its long-term impact. As I said earlier, I have no problems with opening up retail to foreign kirana-wallas, provided it emerges are a well thought out decision after proper study and adequate national debate.