FDI In Retail...

Frankly, I am not competent enough to figure out the pros and cons of the decision to open up the retail sector to Foreign Direct Investment. So I have absolutely no bias for or against this decision. I am willing to accept that the decision may help the nation in the long run as much as I am willing to accept that this decision is a sell-out to the interests of multinationals. So I am not even delving into the merits or demerits of the decision, for now. What perturbs me is the sheer haste with which the government wants to move on this.

This same government was shying away from taking decision since last three years on almost anything. So when the Team Anna with full might of the people of India behind it, applied pressure to pass the Jan Lokpal Bill in the monsoon session of the parliament itself, the same government's response was prompt. It is a bill that would have long-term repercussions and hence it needs time to be studied and debated amply before it can be passed. For some strange reason, this same government apparently thinks that the decision on FDI in retail does not require such due diligence. Its almost like Rip Van Winkle woke up from a deep slumber of three years, one fine morning and said "Hey, we need to do FDI in retail..quick!"

Here's what happened while the government was sleeping. We had a big real estate bubble - both commercial as well as residential. While the interest rates were soft, builders aggressively borrowed to buy land and build residential and commercial structures. Property prices kept going up like never before. A lot of this business flourished on the back of ill-gotten wealth of the politicians. Now we are in a situation where commercial realty has already crashed and residential is in a deep mess. Don't ask me the source of my information. I am not in the habit of maintaining links and references to my information source. You just have to search for real-estate inventory in the 4 metros and the numbers are available all across the internet. The builders will hold on to the inventory so long as the real investors behind it (the politicians with black money) are willing to stay put.

These politicians will soon need the money. You need money to fight elections and election season is round the corner. First some major states that are going to polls, and then the grand finale' in 2014. Where will this money come from if it is stuck up in inventory that is refusing to get sold? This is where FDI comes in. Walmart is going to need space, a hell lot of space to open its malls. Initially, the malls are going to get permission only in the big cities. The same cities where land is scarce and where the ill-gotten wealth is stuck up the most.

This explains the haste with which the FDI needs to happen, no matter its long-term impact. As I said earlier, I have no problems with opening up retail to foreign kirana-wallas, provided it emerges are a well thought out decision after proper study and adequate national debate.

Anna's protest is naive and simplistic says Nandan Nilekani

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/annas-protest-unjustified-nandan-nilekani/176743-3.html
It was interesting to read this interview given by Nandan Nilekani to CNN-IBN. Its good that the intellectuals from Corporate India also participate in this debate. Irrespective of the side they take, their views deserve all the respect. To that extent, I appreciate Mr. Nilekani for having given his honest opinion.

In the interview, the ex-CEO of Infosys and current chairman of Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) puts forth an argument based on the notion that Jan Lokpal is not going to eliminate all the corruption and hence the protests by Anna are naive and simplistic. He goes on to say how Aadhar (UID) will go a long way to bring in transparency in people's interaction with the State.

Mr. Nilekani, you have made an assumption that the protesters believe that Jan Lokpal, to the exclusion of all other things is going to make the nation corruption-free. It would be foolish to believe that Jan Lokpal is going to eliminate all the corruption in the country. No one, and certainly not the Team Anna is saying that. Just like Jan Lokpal, even the project under your chairmanship, Aadhar (UID) is not guaranteed to remove corruption from its roots.

The company Infosys on whose rolls, you served as CEO and Co-chairman, has earned a lot of prosperity for its stakeholders and above all, made India proud in many ways besides just being the IT bellwether of India. It is under your and Mr. Narayan Murthy's leadership that it introduced a whistle-blower in its system. Your organization set a trend for all the IT and non-IT companies of India to follow. Ombudsman now exists almost in all major organizations in India. Did you ever question your colleagues at Infosys as to how an Ombudsman is going to solve all kind of issues related to corporate ethics in its work environment? Does the top management at Infy enjoy immunity from this Ombudsman?

It is good that the government accepted the idea of Unique Identification Cards and went ahead with its implementation. But hypothetically, if it would not have agreed to it, do you or don't you agree that it is the job of citizens of India, including yourself to make the government realize that they are wrong in not implementing this project? Would you then, accept someone else's line of argument that UID is not a magical mantra that is going to solve all the corruption related issues and hence it would be naive to protest against its non-implementation?

Aadhar (UID) is a good thing that has happened to India, under your able leadership. So is another piece of enactment - the Right To Information Act (RTI). Likewise, the nation needs a strong ombudsman to whom all public offices will be held accountable. Each one of these are a building block and not a complete structure in itself. There may be many such blocks required. But it does not require a Construction Engineer to figure out that if one of the building blocks is weak/missing, the structure is incomplete! So please don't say that the protests against a weak Lokpal draft are naive just because Jan Lokpal by itself, can not eliminate all the corruption in this nation.

The nation certainly expects much better line of thinking from the best intellectuals it has got. But I guess, since you are currently on the government payrolls, probably your tongue is tied!

COO of SpeakAsia, Tarak Bajpai detained

"But please tell us, how will we get back our invested money?", lamented one gentleman in Comments section of an article in the website of a prominent Indian News Channel. The article reported the detention of Tarak Bajpai, the COO of SpeakAsia. Like this guy above, there are many others who got lured by the promise of easy money. If the numbers are to be believed, there are about 20 Lakh panelists of Speak Asia, a scheme that pays money to its subscribers (panelists) for filling survey forms, online.

I empathize with this gentleman. Make no mistake, I being from a humble middle-class family, understand how it feels when hard earned money gets lost to a dubious scheme. However, truth be told, this money is not an investment. An investment happens as a result of researching a particular business model, an analysis of expected future cash flows, the profile and trustworthiness of the promoters of the business. On all these counts, money chipped in such schemes can not be called an investment. Even after doing all this research, you may end up losing some money in your investment. But not researching any of this, surely is not an investment. Yet this is not the first instance where a large number of gullible masses have lost their money to ponzi schemes, online lotteries, etc. Bernie Madoff is a living proof that people across the world, irrespective of their educational background can be lured into schemes that certainly are not investment.

A recent episode of a prime-time Hindi TV show "Tarak Mehta Ka Ulta Chashma" (coincidentally sharing his first name with COO of Speak Asia!), showed how Bhide (a middle-class Maharashtrian guy) got lured into an online lottery scam and almost lost his entire net-worth as well as his wife's jewellery. Fortunately, it was a serial that is known for happy endings. However, this is unlike life. In such instances, more often than not, life throws up rude shocks.

I sincerely hope, the guy above and many others like him, get back their money. But a lesson that is never learnt despite the numerous ponzi schemes in the past is that whenever some money scheme appears too good to be true, it most certainly is a fraud.

My Love For BJP formally ends today

Either Yeddyurappa must resign or the BJP government in Karnataka must go. An arrogant attitude from the party that is visible from its stance that Yeddyurappa will continue to be the Chief Minister, on the back of some very serious charges made by Karnataka Lokayukta, pertaining to the nexus with the mining brothers of Bellary means that the BJP does not provide any serious alternative to the corrupt Congress. It is lamentable that while Congress has provided the nation just 60 years of misrule and corruption of the worst kind, BJP ditched the very masses that hoped that it would provide a credible alternative to the Congress. Gradually it drifted from the moral high ground that it took during its formative years. But now it has reached a point at which there is absolutely no difference between the Congress and the BJP.

This comes from a typical urban middle-class guy who has always been a BJP supporter all the way since early childhood till Jharkhand alliance happened. Though, I thought that the alliance with Shibu Soren is just an aberration. But now with Karnataka, it is clear that the BJP is just Congress in Bonzai form. Given 50 - 60 years in power, its corruption may as well have been the size of Congress. The party is dead. Now all that I have is an admiration for certain few individuals in the party, like the Chief Minister of Gujarat, Narendra Modi.

The nation is in a hopeless state. An ordinary voter, who can think and have an independent view of his own based on what he thinks is national interest, has absolutely no choice to make between the BJP and the Congress. For those who can't think, they still have choices based on which party offers what to his/her religion, caste, creed, or language. I think it is these people who will influence the nation's politics. It is these people who will matter to the politicians of today.

I have already made up my mind for Lok Sabha 2014. I will cast my vote for an independent candidate from my constituency. No more BJP, no more Congress or any of their numerous alliance partners which by the way, keep changing every now and then. I hope some independents, supported by the Civil Society Movement take a plunge into politics. At least that will motivate people like me to go out and vote.