Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Help needed on Special Theory of Relativity

So I understand the basic premise on which Special Theory of Relativity hinges:
1. Speed of Light is the same no matter from what frame of reference it is measured. So a guy inside a moving train measures it at 300,000 Km/s as much as a guy standing still at the railway station
2. There is no experimental setup that can prove one object to be stationary and the other one to be moving. In other words, there is no preferred constant speed. It can always be argued that object A is stationary and another object B is moving at 5 Km/Hr as much as it can be argued that object B is stationary while A is moving at 5 Km/Hr in opposite direction.



These two postulates throw up a set of equations we collectively refer to as Special Theory of Relativity. One of these equations explains time dilation:
T' = T * SQRT(1 - v^2/c^2)
where, T is time at rest, v is the speed at which the object is moving and c is the speed of light. T' is the speed of light while the object is moving at speed v.

Here's the problem that I have not yet been able to comprehend:
Assuming two brothers A and B were at railway station. At exactly 3PM, B boards a train that travels at 99% the speed of light only to return back after 2 seconds according to B's watch while A is still at the railway station. The way I have been told how theory of relativity will manifest itself is:

Once B is back to the station and the two brothers check the time on their respective watches, B sees that it has been 2 seconds past 3 PM while for A, the time is about 10 seconds past 3 PM (T' in above equation is B's time and T is A's). Apparently for B, time slowed down. Turning this problem around, can it not be argued that B and the train were stationary and that it was A who traveled at 98% the speed of light in the opposite direction? In that case one would infer that the time slowed down for A and not B. If the example is correct then it appears that Special Theory of Relativity is contradicting itself and that indeed there is a preferred frame of reference and A is to be treated at speed 0 only and B is to be treated as the one that is moving.

I am sure I am missing something. Can someone please help me as to what is going wrong here?

Sunday, May 27, 2012

Plight of Indian Rupee

It does not take too much of an analysis to conclude that the assets in India, especially the real estate were grossly overpriced. However, here's some analysis to prove the point.

In order to buy a humble 2-bedroom abode with small sized rooms, one has to shell out Rs. 10-15 million in the suburbs of Mumbai. The closer you go to the city, the price goes up even further. This in a city with miserable infrastructure, connectivity and chaotic quality of life. It takes just a breakdown in the railway signalling system to bring the entire city to a stand-still! When the rupee was priced at 45 to a dollar, this humble abode translated to approximately USD 225,000 to USD 335,000. For that kind of money, you could have bought a palace in a city in US with much better connectivity, infrastructure and a peaceful quality of life. The facilities like free county library, public parks, etc come as a bonus.

Something had to correct to right-size the real estate in India. Now the rupee is undergoing a sharp devaluation.  At Rs 55 to a dollar, how does the same apartment price in dollar terms? It now comes for a price tag of about $180,000 to $270,000. Still expensive but we are getting there - where we belong. A complete right-sizing is yet to happen. It can take shape in either of the three ways - A bloodbath in the real estate market, an even sharper devaluation of Indian Rupee or both.

Saturday, May 26, 2012

Fuel Price Hikes

What causes the Indian middle-class to rant on the Facebook and Twitter against the Indian Government? Yet another fuel price hike. So when the government announced a steep Rs. 7 hike in petrol prices, the Facebook is flooded with cartoons and humourous one-liners to express the cynicism against this move by the government.

(Image courtesy www.LifeSnap.in)

This creates a picture of a frustrated middle-class that is finding it impossible to make its ends meet. Assuming this picture to be correct, it makes me wonder:
  • Who are the people I see every single evening sipping a lavish coffee at Barrista's or Cafe Coffee Day? I hear even Starbucks and Dunkin Donuts are planning their entry into Indian markets. Surely, they are tapping a market large enough to accommodate all of these players. Their market definitely can not constitute just the rich and the affluent.
  • Every single friday, at least two or three new trashy bollywood movies are released into the multiplexes that charge tickets no less than Rs200 per head. The trashiest of Salman Khan movies are a block-buster hit. Who are the people  flooding the cinema halls despite the steep inflation?
  • The list is endless - malls abuzz with people buying things ranging from the bare essentials to the lavish perfumes and ray-bans, cars choking up the city roads, rickshaws getting so many long distance passengers that they refuse to ply shorter distance passengers.
I am sure there is a vast majority of Indians who are terribly impacted by fuel price inflation but I doubt if the people venting their anger in Facebook and Twitter are amongst them. 

One statistic that is often played out is the fact that petrol prices in India are much higher than in other countries. This is true. Price of petrol (gas) in US is $4 per gallon that translates roughly to  Rs.58 per liter. But consider also the fact that diesel in US also is about $4 per gallon (Rs.58 per liter). The diesel prices in India are Rs. 46 per liter. Kerosene in US costs about Rs.42 a liter. The heavily subsidized kerosene comes at Rs.13. It is these and many other subsidies that the government has to fund in some way or the other. 


Instead of fuming and fretting over the petrol price hikes, I suggest these people to pressurize the local municipalities to do the following:

  • Create a better infrastructure of public transportation. There were lot many BEST routes and much better frequency of buses once upon a time in Mumbai. Slowly a lot many of these routes have been closed down and the frequency reduced. I smell nexus between auto companies and governments behind this!
  • Short distances need to be traversed either by walk or bicycles. Ask the municipality to create more sidewalks and make them exclusively available only for pedestrians and not to be shared with hawkers. Encourage people to use bicycles by providing exclusive bicycle lanes and stands for parking cycles.
Crude oil and its products are a finite commodity and the prices to some extent reflect the fact that the commodity is getting rarer by the day. Accordingly, it needs to be used more prudently. Also, the inflation signals the fact that more money is being spent rather than saved and invested. If the voracious appetite for consumption by middle-class comes down, automatically the inflation will fall.


Friday, December 2, 2011

FDI In Retail...

Frankly, I am not competent enough to figure out the pros and cons of the decision to open up the retail sector to Foreign Direct Investment. So I have absolutely no bias for or against this decision. I am willing to accept that the decision may help the nation in the long run as much as I am willing to accept that this decision is a sell-out to the interests of multinationals. So I am not even delving into the merits or demerits of the decision, for now. What perturbs me is the sheer haste with which the government wants to move on this.

This same government was shying away from taking decision since last three years on almost anything. So when the Team Anna with full might of the people of India behind it, applied pressure to pass the Jan Lokpal Bill in the monsoon session of the parliament itself, the same government's response was prompt. It is a bill that would have long-term repercussions and hence it needs time to be studied and debated amply before it can be passed. For some strange reason, this same government apparently thinks that the decision on FDI in retail does not require such due diligence. Its almost like Rip Van Winkle woke up from a deep slumber of three years, one fine morning and said "Hey, we need to do FDI in retail..quick!"

Here's what happened while the government was sleeping. We had a big real estate bubble - both commercial as well as residential. While the interest rates were soft, builders aggressively borrowed to buy land and build residential and commercial structures. Property prices kept going up like never before. A lot of this business flourished on the back of ill-gotten wealth of the politicians. Now we are in a situation where commercial realty has already crashed and residential is in a deep mess. Don't ask me the source of my information. I am not in the habit of maintaining links and references to my information source. You just have to search for real-estate inventory in the 4 metros and the numbers are available all across the internet. The builders will hold on to the inventory so long as the real investors behind it (the politicians with black money) are willing to stay put.

These politicians will soon need the money. You need money to fight elections and election season is round the corner. First some major states that are going to polls, and then the grand finale' in 2014. Where will this money come from if it is stuck up in inventory that is refusing to get sold? This is where FDI comes in. Walmart is going to need space, a hell lot of space to open its malls. Initially, the malls are going to get permission only in the big cities. The same cities where land is scarce and where the ill-gotten wealth is stuck up the most.

This explains the haste with which the FDI needs to happen, no matter its long-term impact. As I said earlier, I have no problems with opening up retail to foreign kirana-wallas, provided it emerges are a well thought out decision after proper study and adequate national debate.

Friday, August 19, 2011

Anna's protest is naive and simplistic says Nandan Nilekani

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/annas-protest-unjustified-nandan-nilekani/176743-3.html
It was interesting to read this interview given by Nandan Nilekani to CNN-IBN. Its good that the intellectuals from Corporate India also participate in this debate. Irrespective of the side they take, their views deserve all the respect. To that extent, I appreciate Mr. Nilekani for having given his honest opinion.

In the interview, the ex-CEO of Infosys and current chairman of Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) puts forth an argument based on the notion that Jan Lokpal is not going to eliminate all the corruption and hence the protests by Anna are naive and simplistic. He goes on to say how Aadhar (UID) will go a long way to bring in transparency in people's interaction with the State.

Mr. Nilekani, you have made an assumption that the protesters believe that Jan Lokpal, to the exclusion of all other things is going to make the nation corruption-free. It would be foolish to believe that Jan Lokpal is going to eliminate all the corruption in the country. No one, and certainly not the Team Anna is saying that. Just like Jan Lokpal, even the project under your chairmanship, Aadhar (UID) is not guaranteed to remove corruption from its roots.

The company Infosys on whose rolls, you served as CEO and Co-chairman, has earned a lot of prosperity for its stakeholders and above all, made India proud in many ways besides just being the IT bellwether of India. It is under your and Mr. Narayan Murthy's leadership that it introduced a whistle-blower in its system. Your organization set a trend for all the IT and non-IT companies of India to follow. Ombudsman now exists almost in all major organizations in India. Did you ever question your colleagues at Infosys as to how an Ombudsman is going to solve all kind of issues related to corporate ethics in its work environment? Does the top management at Infy enjoy immunity from this Ombudsman?

It is good that the government accepted the idea of Unique Identification Cards and went ahead with its implementation. But hypothetically, if it would not have agreed to it, do you or don't you agree that it is the job of citizens of India, including yourself to make the government realize that they are wrong in not implementing this project? Would you then, accept someone else's line of argument that UID is not a magical mantra that is going to solve all the corruption related issues and hence it would be naive to protest against its non-implementation?

Aadhar (UID) is a good thing that has happened to India, under your able leadership. So is another piece of enactment - the Right To Information Act (RTI). Likewise, the nation needs a strong ombudsman to whom all public offices will be held accountable. Each one of these are a building block and not a complete structure in itself. There may be many such blocks required. But it does not require a Construction Engineer to figure out that if one of the building blocks is weak/missing, the structure is incomplete! So please don't say that the protests against a weak Lokpal draft are naive just because Jan Lokpal by itself, can not eliminate all the corruption in this nation.

The nation certainly expects much better line of thinking from the best intellectuals it has got. But I guess, since you are currently on the government payrolls, probably your tongue is tied!

Friday, July 29, 2011

COO of SpeakAsia, Tarak Bajpai detained


"But please tell us, how will we get back our invested money?", lamented one gentleman in Comments section of an article in the website of a prominent Indian News Channel. The article reported the detention of Tarak Bajpai, the COO of SpeakAsia. Like this guy above, there are many others who got lured by the promise of easy money. If the numbers are to be believed, there are about 20 Lakh panelists of Speak Asia, a scheme that pays money to its subscribers (panelists) for filling survey forms, online.

I empathize with this gentleman. Make no mistake, I being from a humble middle-class family, understand how it feels when hard earned money gets lost to a dubious scheme. However, truth be told, this money is not an investment. An investment happens as a result of researching a particular business model, an analysis of expected future cash flows, the profile and trustworthiness of the promoters of the business. On all these counts, money chipped in such schemes can not be called an investment. Even after doing all this research, you may end up losing some money in your investment. But not researching any of this, surely is not an investment. Yet this is not the first instance where a large number of gullible masses have lost their money to ponzi schemes, online lotteries, etc. Bernie Madoff is a living proof that people across the world, irrespective of their educational background can be lured into schemes that certainly are not investment.

A recent episode of a prime-time Hindi TV show "Tarak Mehta Ka Ulta Chashma" (coincidentally sharing his first name with COO of Speak Asia!), showed how Bhide (a middle-class Maharashtrian guy) got lured into an online lottery scam and almost lost his entire net-worth as well as his wife's jewellery. Fortunately, it was a serial that is known for happy endings. However, this is unlike life. In such instances, more often than not, life throws up rude shocks.

I sincerely hope, the guy above and many others like him, get back their money. But a lesson that is never learnt despite the numerous ponzi schemes in the past is that whenever some money scheme appears too good to be true, it most certainly is a fraud.

Friday, July 22, 2011

My Love For BJP formally ends today

Either Yeddyurappa must resign or the BJP government in Karnataka must go. An arrogant attitude from the party that is visible from its stance that Yeddyurappa will continue to be the Chief Minister, on the back of some very serious charges made by Karnataka Lokayukta, pertaining to the nexus with the mining brothers of Bellary means that the BJP does not provide any serious alternative to the corrupt Congress. It is lamentable that while Congress has provided the nation just 60 years of misrule and corruption of the worst kind, BJP ditched the very masses that hoped that it would provide a credible alternative to the Congress. Gradually it drifted from the moral high ground that it took during its formative years. But now it has reached a point at which there is absolutely no difference between the Congress and the BJP.


This comes from a typical urban middle-class guy who has always been a BJP supporter all the way since early childhood till Jharkhand alliance happened. Though, I thought that the alliance with Shibu Soren is just an aberration. But now with Karnataka, it is clear that the BJP is just Congress in Bonzai form. Given 50 - 60 years in power, its corruption may as well have been the size of Congress. The party is dead. Now all that I have is an admiration for certain few individuals in the party, like the Chief Minister of Gujarat, Narendra Modi.


The nation is in a hopeless state. An ordinary voter, who can think and have an independent view of his own based on what he thinks is national interest, has absolutely no choice to make between the BJP and the Congress. For those who can't think, they still have choices based on which party offers what to his/her religion, caste, creed, or language. I think it is these people who will influence the nation's politics. It is these people who will matter to the politicians of today.


I have already made up my mind for Lok Sabha 2014. I will cast my vote for an independent candidate from my constituency. No more BJP, no more Congress or any of their numerous alliance partners which by the way, keep changing every now and then. I hope some independents, supported by the Civil Society Movement take a plunge into politics. At least that will motivate people like me to go out and vote.